Sup retards, back at it with the DD/macro. scroll to the rain man stuff after the crayons if you don't care about the why or how. TLDR: June 19 $250 SPY puts May 20 $4 USO puts SPY under 150 by January next year. So I was going about my business, trying to not $ROPE myself as my sweet tendies I made during the waterfall of March have evaporated, however, I heard that the fed was adding another $2.3T in monopoly money to the bankers pile specifically to help facilitate these loan programs being rolled out. In short, they are backing these dumb-ass, zero recourse, federally mandated, loans with printing press money. But cumguzzler OP, your title is about inflation and guage simp--try, why are you talking about the fed #ban. Well, when you print money it is an inflationary action in theory. Let me explain.
What is inflation? Inflation is the sustained increase in the price level in goods and services. Inflation is derived from a general price index, and in the US, from the consumer price index. Knowing that inflation is an outcome, not a set policy is very important. Inflation is a measurement after the fact, much like your technical astrology indicators. (**ps, use order flow in your TA you wizards**) HOWEVER, the actual act of buying bundles of these loans does not directly impact inflation. Now what is Gauge symmetry? Gauge symmetry is a function of math and theoretical physics that can be applied to finance models. What a gauge is, is a measurement. Gauge symmetry is when the underlying variable of something changes, however, we do not observe that variable change. A great example of this is if you and a friend are moving, and your friend is holding a box of tendies. The box is a cube, equal on all sides. If you turn away for a moment and she rotates the cube 90 degrees while you are not looking, and you look back - you would have no idea the cube was rotated. There was a very real change in the position of the cube in relation to space-time. Your friend acted on it. But you didn't measure it, in fact it would be impossible for you to determine if the box was changed at all if you weren't observing it. That movement of the box where you didn't observe it, is called gauge transformation and happens literally more then JPow fucks my mom in quantum physics. The object observably exactly the same even though it is not physically the same. The act of it existing as an observably the same box is gauge symmetry - it is by observation symmetrical. Why this is important, is that fiat money doesn't have any absolute meaning. The value of $1 is arbitrary. furthermore, Inflation is a Guage symmetry. Inflation has no real impact on the real value of the underlying goods and services, but rather serves as a metric to measure the shift of value across a timeline. When JPow starts pluggin' your mom along with all these balance sheets, there is a gauge symmetry event happening. The money he is printing is entering the system (gauge transformation), this isn't an issue if all pricing against the USD get shifted equally, however, the market is not accounting for this money because we don't have real-time data on what is being applied where, we only get a slow drip in terms of weekly and monthly reports. WE HAVE OUR EYES CLOSED. This is a gauge symmetry event. When this happens in real terms, the market becomes dislocated from its real value price. Well how do we know there is a dislocation? "YoU JuSt SaId tHe UnDeRlYiNg VaLuE iZ AbStRaCkKt HuRr QE aNd MaRkEtS Iz ComPlEx ReAd A TeXtBuK AbOuT FrAcTiOnAl ReSErVe BanKiNg YoU NeRd." - **anyone rationalizing the bull run** We can look at Forex you fish. USD lives in a bubble. The Yen is in a bubble, the RMB is in a bubble, and we exchange with each other. the Jap central bank has little effect on the CPI index (cost of goods and services) of the US. If the Yen prints a gazillion dollars, the USD is not effected EXCEPT in its exchange rate. YEN:USD would see a sizeable differential the more Yen is printed and vise-versa. So NOW instead of JPow getting away with plowing your girlfriend, we can catch the bitch. Instead of looking at the gauge transformation at face value and then giving up because it is symmetrical output, we can look and see if this gauge symmetry carries over to the foreign exchange market. Well guess what happens when you look at the value of the USD against foreign currencies. Consistent uncertainty during the fed operations. Meaning the market of banks that partake in FX swaps don't know where to spot the USD. Generally a very very bad thing. Value of the USD to Euro 2017-2020, notice the slow decline, then the chaos at the end Above is the value of the USD to Euro, notice the sloping decline. The dollar has been growing weaker since 2017. At the end you see our present issues, lets #ENHANCE USD to Euro, January 2020 to Present When you see those spikes, those are days in between Fed action. The value of the US goes up when the fed doesn't print because people aren't spending. Non-spending is a deflationary event and has a direct impact on the CPI. However, each drop when you line up the dates, was a date of Fed spending. Lets look outside of the Eurozone. This is the RMB to USD. Yes China manipulates, but look at the end of the graph China manipulated rates early in 2018 however you can see the steady incline upward towards the of 2018. More specifically, lets look at it since December. RMB value against USD, January to Now You Can see the Chinese RMB has been gaining steam since December, even with Chinese production falling off a cliff all through this pandemic.
What this rain man level autism means for the economy.
Looking across the board at Forex we can see the USD having a schizo panic attack jumping up and down like me at a mathematics lecture. But what does all this gauge BDSM and shit have to do with the markets? Well it shows 1 of 3 things are occuring.
The fed is printing money to offset deflationary pressures of the economy being fuk for the past month, and therefore all this printing is offset by the loss of liquidity throughout the system and we are all retared. (SECRET: THIS IS WHAT ALL THE INSTITUTIONS THINK IS HAPPENING AND WE WILL ALL BE FINE.)
The deflationary event is overplayed, and JPow just is nailing his coffin together. This would result in long term hyperinflation similiar to the Weimar republic. The only hedge against this is to load up on strong currency that do not manipulate and have enough distance from US markets that they can have some safety (ironically the Ruble is the safest currency. Low link to the USD and not influenced by China, and on discount rn)
The gauge transformation is actually not as severe as they are blurting out, the fed does not pass go, does not actually print 10 Trillion dollars, and this was all a marketing ploy to not get Trump involved and prop markets. In this case, the real deflationary event is real, the USD red rockets harder then my cock and we end up market-wise at a very high asset price in relation to real value. This one is most dangerous because it increases the real value of debt and has mass dislocation between real value and market cap. You took debt at a fixed interest rate and a fixed principal, this would cause the biggest GUH in history when all of a sudden you are $100 million in debt and your revenue was $50 million a year ago, but now is only $25 million. That $100 million in debt is still $100 million and now you have a credit crisis because past values of money were inflated. This spirals into a large scale solvency crisis of any company utilizing current growth methodology (levering up to your tits in debt)
In only 1 of these 3 scenarios do we see any sort of "good" outcome? That would be the offset of deflationary pressures. It is very important to understand that inflation is only a measurement, and itself does not denote value of real goods and services. Option 1 of a print fiesta that works (something similar to 1981-82) seems possible. A similar environment and reaction occured in the early 80s when the government brute-forced a bull run using these same offset theorems but in that situation, Volker at the fed had interest rates at 21.5% and had 20% to come down to stimulate the inflationary reaction. Long term this would just lever up more debt and expanded the real wealth gap over time because we kicked the can down the road another 15 years. If that happens again socioeconomically I don't see capitalism surviving (yeah Im on my high horse get over it). This is the option that many fiscal policymakers and talking heads abide by and the reason why the markets are green. However, it is really just kicking it down the road and expanding real wealth inequality. You think Bernie Sanders is bad, wait until homes cost $3million dollars in Kentucky and AOC Jr comes around. If we get option 2, we see hyperinflation and we turn into Zimbabwe, which is great, I've always wanted to see Africa. Long term we could push interest rate back to 1980 Volker levels and slowly revalue the US against real value commodities already pegged to the USD like oil. This would be a short term shock but because of international reliance on the USD system, we could slowly de-lever this inflation over 2-3 years and be back to normal capacity although the markets would blow their O-ring. Recession yes, but no long term depression. If we get option 3, the worst long term option in my opinion, basically any company with any revolver line drawn down when that hits is going to go under, private equity won't touch it with a 20ft stick because cashflows couldn't possibly handle the debt on the end of the lever, and we see mass long term unemployment. The only way out of the spiral of option three is inflationary pressure from the fed+government, but because we are already so far down the rabbit hole at the current moment there's no fucking way we could print another 10 trillion. USD treasuries couldn't handle the guh and we would essentially be functionally forced into a long term (7-10 year) depression because nothing anyone could do would delever the value of the dollar. This would result in the long term collapse of the United States as a world power and would render us like Russia in 1991. Thank you for coming to my ted talk.
I built a forex trading strategy recently for a friend, and wanted to share it / get some feedback on it, as most of the systems I build trade stocks and are more fundamental/macro based! The system was inspired by this forexfactory post: https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=343533 but I've made a few changes. The Filter: I didn't like the proposed TMA slope indicator as the calculation and cutoff values seemed too arbitrary to me, so I take the 5 bar ROC of an EMA and smooth it. I divide this value by its standard deviation to scale it for higher timeframe analysis. I take the value of this adjustedSlope at the 4H, 1D, 1W timeframes, and sumproduct them with weights of 40%, 30%, 30% to give a little more strength to recent movements. I call this the overallSlope (for future reference). I describe the the market regime under these rules: (overallSlope > overallSlope and overallSlope > 0) = bullish (overallSlope < overallSlope and overallSlope < 0) = bearish (overallSlope > overallSlope and overallSlope < 0) = neutral (overallSlope < overallSlope and overallSlope > 0) = neutral Just like the system from ForexFactory, only long trades can be taken if its bullish, only short trades can be taken if its bearish, and either trade can be taken if its neutral. The Setup: I believe this portion is identical to the original stated system. Take the 50 bar Triangular Moving Average on the 4H timeframe, where the UpperBand is TMA + (2.5 * H4ATR) and the LowerBand is TMA - (2.5 * H4ATR). If the market regime is bullish/neutral and the price has traded below the Lower Band then we're setting up for a buy and vice versa with a bearish/neutral market regime and price trading above the Upper Band. I'm considering switching this to Median Absolute Deviation Bands as I like using the modified Z Score but I'm unsure of applying it directly to a price series instead of indirectly through an indicator or factor, I assume the median isn't very effective due to the actual series drifting, where as its (more) static when applied to Earnings Yield or something. The Trigger: For the trigger I'm on the 1H TimeFrame using the MACD histogram crossing 0, but the MACD is based on the Jurik Moving Average instead of the standard. A couple years ago when I first started getting into programming and playing forex, the JMA was something I stumbled on and wrote up and I really like it, it's very effective and smoothing a series, allowing the use of shorter lookback values without the MA being too "jittery". Exits: On the losing side, at open a stop loss is placed at (2 * H4ATR) below(above) the low(high) if we're going Long(Short). I'm currently split between two exits on the profit side. Right now my current exit criteria for a hypothetical long position is a bearish MACD Histogram crossover while we are above the TMA (the "midline"). The other strategy I'm considering is half off at the midline and the other half off at the Upper Band, but I think this isn't great because it can reverse and hit the stop effectively nulling the trade. Risk Management: For the risk management of the system I'm using position sizes standardized to risk 3% of the account on each trade by calculating how far away the stop is, and scaling the # of units until $risk = AccVal * .03. Additional Comments: As of right now I only have it fully coded on TradingView and I've made sure to use open prices for everything to avoid? (not sure if this completely handles this issue, please let me know) lookahead bias and I'm in the process of translating my code into my backtesting system but a lot of what I've built is equity related so I have some work to do to get it running right for forex. In TradingView I have it plot the Entry, Stop, and two targets, and the background shifts based on if it's long/short/flat. https://imgur.com/a/A1UQi04 I look forward to any thoughts or comments y'all may have, thanks for reading!
I attend one of the top Finance universities in the world. Ever wanted to know what we learn at such prestigious establishments? Heres my guide to fundamental analysis.
I see so many questions relating to "How do Hedge Fund/Investment Banks/Trading Firms trade?". While most people on Forex have no idea, they like to tell people their two cents. Top funds/banks/traders do not use technical analysis as they are solely a derivative of price. They use Fundamental analysis and leading indicators such as Volume. Be warned, the following is not for the faint-hearted and requires some (albeit basic) economic understanding. However, this might demystify fundamental analysis for you. If you can understand what I'm saying here, you are doing better than 90% of most retail traders. Enjoy.
1. Explain how factors that affect the demand for a currency, or the supply of a currency, affect the determination of an equilibrium exchange rate.
• In a floating exchange rate regime, the exchange rate is determined by the demand for and supply of a currency. • The demand for a currency is represented by a downward-sloping demand curve. A lower exchange rate will increase the competitiveness of a country’s exports, thus attracting buyers of the local currency in order to purchase those goods, services, and financial assets. • The supply of a currency is represented by an upward-sloping demand curve. As the local currency appreciates, the relative cost of foreign currencies falls, thus attracting sellers of the local currencies (i.e. buyers of the foreign currency). • The equilibrium exchange rate is at the intersection of the demand and supply curves. In an efficient market, any other exchange rate would result in an increase in either demand or supply, thus maintaining the equilibrium exchange rate. • A country that maintains a linked exchange rate, crawling peg or managed float exchange rate regime, whereby the local currency is tied to another currency such as the USD, or a basket of other currencies, is effectively tied into supply and demand factors that affect the currency or the basket of currencies to which it is linked or pegged.
2. Understand how the major factors that influence exchange rate movements operate, particularly:
a. Relative inflation rates • Of the theories advanced to explain the exchange rate, and changes in the equilibrium rate, the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) theory is the longest standing. • PPP theory contends that movements in exchange rates will ensure that the cost of identical goods and services will be equal across countries. A change in inflation represents a change in prices in a country; PPP argues that a change in relative inflation rates between countries will be offset by a change in the exchange rate. • Under PPP, a country with a higher inflation rate relative to another country can expect its currency to depreciate. • Perhaps the most critical shortcoming of PPP is that there are variables in addition to inflation that affects the value of a currency. • PPP calculations that apply inflation differentials between two countries can be used to determine the expected change in the exchange rate. b. Relative national income growth rates • Changes in relative national income growth rates also affect an exchange rate. For example, increased national income will typically result in increased imports and therefore an increase in the supply of the local currency on the FX markets. However, in a dynamic market, increased national income might encourage business growth, with associated local and overseas investment. This will also have an impact on demand and supply factors in the FX markets. • An increase in the relative rate of growth is likely to result in an increased demand for imports, which will result in a depreciation of the currency. • On the other hand, an increase in the growth rate may also result in an increase in foreign investment inflows, which will cause the currency to appreciate. • Both the above mechanisms are likely to operate, with the balance between the two changing from time to time. c. Relative interest rates • Relative interest rates also affect an exchange rate. For example, a relative increase in local interest rates will attract overseas investors; these investors will purchase the local currency and sell their own currency. Investors need to consider interest rate differentials in conjunction with forecast changes in the exchange rate. Future exchange rate changes will affect the value of future cash flows associated with international investments. • It is important to determine whether the change in interest rates are due to inflationary expectations, or a change in the real rate of interest. • If the increase in interest rates is a result of an increase in inflation expectations, a currency should depreciate. However, if the increase is due to a rise in the real rate of interest, then the currency should appreciate. d. Exchange rate expectations • In addition to the economic fundamentals, exchange rate expectations are important in determining the FX value of a currency. • Exchange rate expectations have a strong influence on exchange rates. Market participants analyse new information in order to try and forecast future impacts on an exchange rate. It may be possible to adopt a specific market indicator as a proxy for exchange rate expectations. For example, in Australia, the commodity price index is often used as a proxy. If sufficient participants form a view, the exchange rate will move; speculators play a large role in forming exchange rate expectations. • The modelling of expectations is a particularly difficult task. Theoretically, expectations should be formed on the basis of the expected values of economic fundamentals. However, the FX market often reacts to new information before the impact on the longer-term economic fundamentals is fully analysed. e. Central bank or government intervention • The actions of governments or central banks are another variable that may be important in the FX markets. • The monetary policy setting of a central bank will impact upon the demand and supply factors that affect an exchange rate. Also, a central bank or government may intervene in the FX markets to influence directly the level of an exchange rate by intervening in international trade flows, intervening in foreign investment flows or conducting FX transactions in the markets. • For example, in an attempt to increase the FX value of its currency, a central bank may sell foreign currency and buy the local currency; alternatively, to reduce the value of its currency, the central bank may buy foreign currency. Alternatively, a government may implement policies that change tariff, quota or embargo settings relating to goods and services.
3. Explore regression analysis as a statistical technique applied to variables that impact on an exchange rate.
• Regression analysis is a quantitative method that measures how movements in variables impact on another variable. • A regression model that measures percentage changes in an exchange rate should include variables of relative inflation rates, relative national income growth, relative interest rates, government or central bank invention and exchange rate expectations. • The model will calculate regression coefficients that measure the responsiveness of the exchange rate to a particular variable. • A dummy variable may be used for variables that do not have a data set (e.g. government intervention). A value of one would be assigned to periods where intervention occurred and the value zero to non-intervention periods. An indication of periods when central bank intervention occurs may be changes in the central bank’s holding of local and foreign currency reserves.
[Changelog] - 2/5/2019 - Portfolio Upgrades, WebSocket API Beta, and an Easter Egg
The Cryptowatch team has traveled from across the globe (galaxy?) to come to the ski slopes of an undisclosed location to put together this release for you.
We've added a quote currency selector to the portfolio, so you can see your balance in whatever currency you prefer. Our personal favorite, you ask? The IDR, of course. It makes us look the best!
WebSocket API Beta
Our WebSocket API for streaming live prices from all markets on Cryptowat.ch is now live in beta. A few select partners have hammered on it for a few weeks - and you could be next. If you shoot an email to [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]) with your Cryptowatch username, we can get you set up with access to the beta. Cryptowatch accounts are now free, so go ahead and create one if you haven't yet!
Kraken WebSocket API Launched
Kraken recently launched their streaming WebSocket API, which Cryptowatch now uses to populate Kraken markets. You'll notice much snappier data on all Kraken markets, and we'll soon have deeper order books for Kraken as a result.
To match with the new Kraken branding, we've released two new themes to Cryptowatch: Kraken Dark (New) and Kraken Light (New). Check them out in the settings menu on the home page and any chart page.
Cryptowat.ch has always had a passion and respect for the right of our clients to privacy and security. As we begin to send more emails and communications to clients, you'll occasionally see a "signature.asc" file attached to your emails from us: if you use an email client that supports PGP signatures, like ProtonMail or Thunderbird with Enigmail, you can import our PGP keys to validate the authenticity of our emails to you.
From Pairs to Instruments
While you won't notice any changes to the user interface as a result of this update, it marks a major moment in our ability to support advanced financial products. Currently, Cryptowat.ch (and most services in the crypto space) are built around a "currency exchange" (forex) model of trading one asset for another - a "base" for a "quote". With the changes we are making, we can now support financial products like futures, swaps, options, loans, and more. We cannot promise any of these will be added - but we are working towards a structure that will allow us to do so in the future, should we choose to do so!
Due to recent tragedies around the QuadrigaCX exchange, we've disabled all of their markets.
You can also apply the TMA slope indicator to the forex markets as well. But the effectiveness of this indicator basically depends on how strong the trends are in the currency pairs that you are applying them to. Due to the fact that the TMA slope indicator can be applied across any time frame it can be used in both multi-time frame analysis as well as in day trading the markets if you choose ... Slope Direction Line Indicator; Currency Meter; Slope Direction Line Multi Time Frame; Currency Heat Map; ROC Multi Currency Indicator; Currency Heatmap; Currency Power Indicator; Currency Power Indicator; Euro Currency Index; Multi Currency Symbols Chart; Currency Meter Indicator; Currency Power Meter Indicator ; Find more indicators. Search for: Search. What are your best indicators? MACD ... 4TF MACD Slope Indicator signals the MACD trend for from H1 to w1 time frames. This is a MetaTrader 4 (MT4) indicator that can be used with any Forex Trading System for extra confirmation to enter or exit a trade. This indicator works with all currency pairs and all timeframes. Once you download and install the indicator, it will appear in your trading chart, like the image shown above. CLICK ... The NXC Slope Divergence indicator is well worth adding to your trading collection but remember about having realistic expectations. Just like any other technical analysis tool, is not capable of providing accurate signals 100% of the time. Thus, it will provide false signals occasionally. Its performance will vary significantly depending on market conditions. Feel free to develop your own ... My friend who is trading Forex since 5 years showed me how he trades. I've been trading with this system with just over 6 months. 85% means 85 winning trades from 100. Should i show you my statement? Sorry i won't. Anyways, i'm not selling this system. Try it for your self. It is based no nothing but trend. You decied which highest time frame you want to trade (depend on for how long you want ... The TMA Slope Indicator for MT4 The TMA Slope Indicator is a custom Indicator which works as an oscillator. It is visually appealing, and the Indicator plots buy and sell signals as and when the oscillator cuts across the zero line. The TMA slope can be used as a trend determination Indicator and it also captures the big and small movements ... The TMA Slope MT4 Indicator is a popular trading indicator with many trading systems integrated within it. The TMA slope indicator is useful as it plots on the sub window as a histogram. Visually, the TMA Slope MT4 Indicator is known capture price action with relative ease and seems to work better than any other technical indicator/oscillator out there. TMA Slope indicator (non-repainting version).. Forex MT4 Indicators – Download Instructions. Tma Slope MT4 Indicator is a Metatrader 4 (MT4) indicator and the essence of the forex indicator is to transform the accumulated history data.. Tma Slope MT4 Indicator provides for an opportunity to detect various peculiarities and patterns in price dynamics which are invisible to the naked eye. Forex Slope Strength Indicator Forex Slope Strength Indicator: Download Free Forex Slope Strength Indicator Introducing: New Forex Royal Renko It’s time to take matters into your own hands and fully transform your trading experience! Imagine a system that lets you make money from the comfort of your own home without anything standing in the way of your earnings. … 470# Trading with Slope indicator; 471# Graf Analysis Indicator; 472# Forex Trigger Indicator; 473# Countertrend forex system; 474# Trend or Range Markets indicator; 475# The Currency Power indicator; 476# Forex Exclusive; 477# Kilid Forex System; 478# MACD Color Indicator Forex Trading System; 479# Blue-Red- Forex Strategy; 480# Stix Indicator
SSM and The Slope Scanner Indicators Live Forex Trading ...
ForexMT4Indicators.com is a compilation of free download of forex strategies, forex systems, forex mt4 indicators, forex mt5 indicators, technical analysis and fundamental analysis in forex trading. Live forex trading using the Signal Strength Meter MT4 indicator, as well as The Slope Scanner. I use both indicators to confirm that the signals are strong,... scalping cycle forex indicator forex scalping strategy with cci and slope indicator scalping custom indicator hidden scalping code indicator best scalping indicator mt4 best scalping indicator ... Easy scalping system, yield 90% successful trades. It uses Slope Indicator and CCI for signal and Parabolic for stop loss settings. For more http://www.forex... The indicator plots a line showing the slope of the price move in last ten bars by default. When the line color is white, the trend direction is up and red line indicates down trend. This is ... Daytrading Linear Regression Slope Changes - Duration: 7:14. ... ADX, SAR & RSI Indicators - Learn to Trade Forex with cTrader episode 14 - Duration: 22:05. cTrader Recommended for you. 22:05 ... More Trading Tips for Stock Traders at: http://www.TradingTips.com "Slope." An optimist might think of Aspen and skiing when confronted with the term, and ma...